VZCZCXRO6262
PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHTC #1184/01 1441527
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 241527Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5825
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEKJCS/CJCS WASHDC
RUEKJCS/DIA WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 THE HAGUE 001184 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/23/2016 

TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR EU NL
 
SUBJECT: DUTCH SOCIALIST PARTY (SP):  NOT YOUR FATHER'S 
MAOISTS 
 
 
Classified By: AMBASSADOR ROLAND ARN...


65298  2006-05-24  06THEHAGUE1184  Embassy The Hague  CONFIDENTIAL    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 THE HAGUE 001184   SIPDIS   SIPDIS   E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/23/2016  TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR EU NL

¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Under the charismatic leadership of Jan  Marijnissen, the Dutch Socialist Party (SP) is reconfiguring  itself to become a credible left-wing alternative to the  increasingly centrist Labor Party (PvdA) of Wouter Bos. In a  rare meeting with Ambassador Arnall on May 16, Marijnissen  and MP Harry van Bommel stressed that the party has evolved  to become more moderate and less anti-American -- although it  remains strongly opposed to many U.S. policies. Party  leaders believe SP could win between 15 and 20 seats in the  next Parliament -- up from 8 -- making it a serious political  force and a potential partner with PvdA in a left-leaning  coalition government -- although PvdA leaders are openly  dismissive of forming a government with former Communists.  END SUMMARY.   

DUTCH SOCIALISTS: REVIVED... 
 -----------------------------   

¶2. (SBU) The Dutch Socialist Party (SP), has long been  perceived as a more radical, leftist alternative to the  increasingly mainstream Labor Party (PvdA). Formed in 1972  as a grass-roots protest party with an openly Maoist  ideology, the SP first competed in parliamentary elections in  1977, but won its first two seats only in 1994. The party's  roots as a provocative protest party is symbolized by its  logo -- a ripe tomato suitable for throwing. Under the  leadership, since 1986, of charismatic former welder and  factory worker Jan Marijnissen, the party has steadily  increased its credibility and appeal -- in 2003, it won nine  seats in the Second Chamber and four in the First Chamber.  The SP is now the fourth largest party in Parliament, and the  third largest in the country in terms of membership (just  under 40,000).   

¶3. (C) During the 2004 Dutch referendum on the EU's  Constitutional Treaty, the SP drew on its extensive  grass-roots networks -- especially in urban areas -- and  party discipline to mount an exceptionally effective no  campaign. Support for SP grew dramatically as a result,  especially among PvdA voters disappointed by their party  leadership's support for the Constitution. Although SP  support has declined from those peak levels, the party more  than doubled its representation in city councils following  the March 2006 municipal elections. SP has subsequently  formed local coalition governments with the PvdA and other  parties in several municipalities, including Nijmegan and  Groningen. According to recent polls, the SP could win 14  seats in parliament if elections were held today, but SP  Foreign Policy Spokesman Harry van Bommel privately predicts  it will win between 15 and 20 seats when elections are held  in 2007. Even taking into account the fact that the SP tends  to do better in opinion polls than in actual elections, the  SP is likely to emerge from the next election as a  significant force in Parliament.   

...REFORMED... 
 --------------   

¶4. (C) On May 16, Ambassador Arnall and POLCOUNS met with  Marijnissen and van Bommel at the Second Chamber of  Parliament. Marijnissen and van Bommel both stressed that  their party has become more moderate, and less  anti-American, in recent years. Marijnissen, for example,  proudly noted that this was the first meeting he had ever had  with an American Ambassador. Van Bommel similarly pointed  out that when he speaks to party members these days, he  stresses that the SP is now more of a Social Democrat party  than a Socialist one. Based on his multiple trips to the  U.S. -- where he worked briefly as a teacher and traveled  extensively by motorcycle -- van Bommel said he appreciated  shared U.S.-Dutch values and could not imagine a Dutch  government abandoning the transatlantic relationship.   

¶5. (C) Van Bommel and Marijnissen made clear that they  strongly disagreed with many policies of the Bush and  Balkenende governments. The SP, for example, firmly opposed  Dutch military deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan. Asked  about Dutch participation in the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF),  van Bommel said he thought the initial Dutch decision to  become involved was a mistake at the time -- and it still  is. That said, SP's interest in foreign policy would always  take a back seat to bread-and-butter domestic issues such as  workers' rights and compensations.   

¶6. (C) Although the SP draws much of its support from urban  areas with large immigrant populations, van Bommel   THE HAGUE 00001184 002 OF 002    acknowledged that the party has a problem attracting  immigrant voters. This is partly due to the party's  tradition of defending indigenous workers' rights against  immigration, but van Bommel suggested that other factors also  played a role. He noted that the sole SP member of  parliament with an Islamic background, Ali Lazrak, had  defected from the parliament because he objected to the SP's  policy of having MP's turn over a significant portion of  their salary directly to party coffers. Van Bommel stressed  that the party was actively looking at ways to change its  image to make it more attractive to culturally conservative  immigrant groups, particularly with regard to religion, and  was seeking to recruit more ethnically diverse candidates.   

...AND READY TO RULE? 
---------------------   

¶7. (C) Van Bommel and Marijnissen accented their willingness  to serve in a left-wing coalition government with PvdA and  GreenLeft -- a possibility they have also raised publicly.  If current trends continue, van Bommel pointed out, there  could be a clear left-wing majority (more than 75 seats) in  the Second Chamber of Parliament following the May 2007  elections for the first time since 1977. Even if PvdA leader  Wouter Bos would prefer to rule from the center, according to  van Bommel, it would be irresponsible for him not to at least  consider governing from the left if that is what the voters  want. He pointed out that the PvdA and SP formed governing  coalitions in a number of municipalities -- including  Groningen and Nijmegan -- following the March 2006 municipal  elections, and could be seen as natural partners on many  issues. Marijnissen joked that Bos had even copied his  trademark look -- suit with no tie -- from Marijnissen, who  has not worn a tie in decades.   

¶8. (C) In a separate meeting with the Ambassador on May 17,  PvdA member (and close Bos advisor) Frans Timmermans rejected  outright any possibility of forming a coalition government  with SP. Timmermans stressed that Bos recognizes that even  to hint at such a possibility would alienate large numbers of  centrist voters both within and to outside the PvdA. In his  view, it would be foolish for the PvdA to trust anyone who  used to be a communist.  

COMMENT: 
--------   

¶9. (C) Having rejected Maoism in the 1970's, abandoned  Marxism-Leninism in 1991, and -- just last year -- dropped  all references to public ownership of property from the party  platform, the SP arguably no longer poses an ideological  threat to the status quo. That said, it remains anathema to  most voters because of its Communist links and history of  aggressive anti-establishment protest activities. As  frustration with the Dutch political establishment grows,  however, voters on both the left and the right are looking  for alternatives to the established parties, and the SP is  well positioned to fill part of that niche. Dr. Gees  Voerman, a specialist in Dutch political parties at the  University of Groningen who is currently writing a book on  the SP, told POLCOUNS recently that the SP may be the fastest  growing party in The Netherlands. If, as expected, the PvdA  refuses to enter into a coalition with SP following the 2007  elections, Voerman noted that the party would be well  positioned to challenge Bos from the left in Parliament,  potentially laying the groundwork for a more serious  challenge to the PvdA's dominance of the left in the future.    ARNALL